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Putin’s New Term—From Brezhnev to Stalin - Андрей Илларионов
Putin’s New Term—From Brezhnev to Stalin
As was widely expected, on Sunday Vladimir Putin was once again reinstalled (reconfirmed, re-enthroned) in the Kremlin. The term “elected” cannot be used in this case since nothing that happened on March 18, 2018, or in the months leading to this date, qualifies for the internationally recognized basic standards of the term “election.”

In full control of the Kremlin for more than 18 years, Putin has already been at the top of the Russian state longer than any other Russian or Soviet leader in the last century—including Leonid Brezhnev—and is now left to compete only with the three-decade reign of Joseph Stalin.

The official numbers of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) gave Putin 76.7% of the vote with a turnout of 67.5%, making up almost 52% of Russia’s electorate. According to the CEC, the official number of people who voted for Putin was 56.4 million. However, Sergei Shpilkin, the renowned expert in electoral statistics, has estimated that ballot stuffing this year amounted to at least 10 million. In each of the three previous cases of “presidential elections” (in 2004, 2008, 2012) Shpilkin and his colleagues calculated the number of added (falsified) votes at between 8.8 and 14.6 million.

Whatever the actual level of Putin’s public support, the official numbers provide Kremlin master with a level of legitimacy that Russian presidents never had before. The real question that now arises is how he is going to use it.

The general consensus is that Putin’s policy on the domestic front would be a still further tightening of his grip on the last remnants of civil society, a further destruction of the already almost-fully-destroyed rule of law, meager—if any—meaningful economic reforms, and definitely a new level of ideologization of Russian society based on anti-liberal, conservative, Orthodox religious values. Russia’s level of political rights and civil liberties in previous years has been sliding down to non-free status. Now its status is just one notch above the very bottom in Freedom House’s political freedom index, meaning that it is close to the level of the totalitarian regimes of Cuba and North Korea. Given Putin’s persistence and Russia’s rapid political deterioration, it is rather hard not to expect that Russia will soon sink to the lowest level in the political freedom index.

As for Putin’s possible foreign policy in the coming years, we can get a hint of it based on a number of his recent statements, comments, and interviews. It appears that Putin’s traditional interest in disturbing Russia’s immediate neighbors and grabbing pieces of land in Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine has been visibly redirected towards Belarus, since Mr. Lukashenko’s dictatorship—lacking any serious foreign allies except for Russia—seems to be particularly vulnerable to absorption. In addition, the Russian “czar” has started to look for more ambitious targets beyond the borders of the former Soviet republics. Recently, his attention has been directed towards his key adversary—the United States—and the most irritating part for him within the United States, its democratic political system. In the documentary movie “The World Order, 2018,” which was prepared by the Kremlin propaganda team before the March presidential vote, Putin firmly articulated his two approaches to the United States: to be emphatically positive towards president Trump and to show strong “disappointment with the unpredictable [democratic] political system” of the United States.

Otherwise, in his interview with NBC anchor Megan Kelly, Putin appeared even more decisive—by naming (unprecedentedly) five times the most crucial problem for him and his key partner (president Trump): namely, the United States political system and the United States Congress. He blamed Congress for all of America’s alleged crimes, such as intervention into Russian internal affairs, different accusations of Russia, proclaiming Russia as an enemy, and the introduction of sanctions against Russia—something that Putin has never done before. It remains to be seen what particular instruments he is ready to apply towards this enemy—intervention into congressional elections this Autumn, cyber-attacks, propaganda, blackmail, or otherwise. But having seen Putin’s approach for years, it is hard not to foresee that one of the main targets of his aggressive foreign policy—either open, or clandestine, or both—in the coming years is going to be the democratic political system of the United States, with the United States Congress at its center.

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17 comments or Leave a comment
ranmod From: ranmod Date: March 21st, 2018 10:03 pm (UTC) (Link)
> amounted to at least 10 million.

No. Almost 10 million.

> close to the level of the totalitarian regimes of Cuba and North Korea.

No. Still far away.
aillarionov From: aillarionov Date: March 21st, 2018 10:48 pm (UTC) (Link)


1. Цифра Шпилькина - это оценка размеров лишь одного из многочисленных способов фальсификации результатов.
Поэтому "at least".

2. У Кубы и Северной Кореи показатели индексов политических прав и гражданских свобод - 7 и 7.
У России - 7 и 6.
Поэтому "оne notch above, close to the level of the totalitarian regimes of Cuba and North Korea".
ranmod From: ranmod Date: March 21st, 2018 11:39 pm (UTC) (Link)

Re: Матчасть

На выборах 2018 года, по оценке Сергея Шпилькина, в пользу Владимира Путина было вброшено чуть больше 10 миллионов бюллетеней. svoboda. org/a/29111031.html

Я думал "почти"

> лишь одного из способов

Какие способы касательно кандидата путина могли быть неучтены в этой мат модели ? Не вижу таких.

2 Значит у них индекс нечуствительный в этой части шкалы. Невозможно себе представить не то что Навального, но даже Собчак с Явлинским в Северной Корее.
В гражданских свободах думаю разница с Северной Кореей еще больше. В РФ можно даже без регистрации жить и легально работать, а в Сев Корее поди без разрешения в столицу не пропишешься. Уехать из страны опять таки можно.
aillarionov From: aillarionov Date: March 22nd, 2018 12:18 am (UTC) (Link)

Re: Матчасть

one_sergey From: one_sergey Date: March 21st, 2018 10:19 pm (UTC) (Link)

11 лет

Путину до Сталина еще 11 лет.
При всей безнадёге ситуации это фактически нереально.
Mikhail Batcer From: Mikhail Batcer Date: March 22nd, 2018 09:46 am (UTC) (Link)

Re: 11 лет

one_sergey From: one_sergey Date: March 23rd, 2018 12:50 am (UTC) (Link)

Re: 11 лет

Не протянет эта система столько
From: (Anonymous) Date: March 21st, 2018 11:50 pm (UTC) (Link)

В рамках закона

А ведь это всё, видимо, в рамках закона... :)

From: (Anonymous) Date: March 22nd, 2018 12:04 am (UTC) (Link)
No doubt, his ambitions are about world domination and he already have pushed so far, leaving no other options:
Either totalitarian rezhimes everywhere on Earth, where any remaining democracy, being attractive example and sanctuary for dissidents, considered as a threat to this new world order.
Either total cleanup of remaining dictatorship criminal quagmires, as a threat to the rapidly advancing free world, being able to provide desperate human resources for any dangerous activity.

ranmod From: ranmod Date: March 22nd, 2018 10:54 am (UTC) (Link)
в племенах и тейпах демократию не построить, как и там где читать не все умеют. Для начала неплохо бы дать всем образование, создать средний класс, прежде чем заикаться про total cleanup civil war.

threat to the rapidly advancing free world представляют только обладатели оружия массового поражения. Остальные - нет.
oldgoro From: oldgoro Date: March 22nd, 2018 12:13 am (UTC) (Link)
Если "путин-выборы" - не выборы, а узурпатор - не президент, то вопрос о пресечении тяжкого государственного преступления актуализировался с новой силой, а в связи с делом об отравлении Скрипалей принимает уже острый международный характер. Борис Джонсон сегодня уже заявил открытым текстом, что Путинский режим имеет мало общего с Россией и её народом.
From: es_map Date: March 22nd, 2018 01:04 pm (UTC) (Link)
Где-то есть нормальный перевод ?
Михаил Палагин From: Михаил Палагин Date: March 22nd, 2018 03:37 pm (UTC) (Link)
Сайт translate.google.ru в последнее время несколько лучше переводит, чем 2-3 года назад. Но не до тонкостей, конечно. Некоторые фразы приходится "переконструировать".
brother_wright From: brother_wright Date: March 22nd, 2018 05:16 pm (UTC) (Link)
<...the main targets of his aggressive foreign policy—either open, or clandestine, or both—in the coming years is going to be the democratic political system of the United States, with the United States Congress at its center.>

Иными словами, Путин и Трамп объединены сейчас одной целью - "сломать" Конгресс. Ввиду явного успеха на этом пути Трампа - сворачивание деятельности Комиссии Палаты представителей по вмешательству России в президентские выборы - особое значение для судеб демократии в США, по моему убеждению, приобретают перспективы выживания расследования Мюллера. Если Трамп все же решится на увольнение последнего (а совершенно бессовестное, по сути подлое увольнение за два дня до пенсии - после 21 года безупречной службы! - Маккейба дает, увы, серьезные основания ожидать подобного развития событий), думаю, в Москве это будет отмечено "праздничным салютом и залпом из двадцати одного орудия"...

Edited at 2018-03-22 05:18 pm (UTC)
From: (Anonymous) Date: March 22nd, 2018 07:33 pm (UTC) (Link)
I hope, to Genghis Khan (21)
hang_hai_zhe From: hang_hai_zhe Date: March 23rd, 2018 08:54 am (UTC) (Link)

Петр Межурицкий: Куда Русь мчится?

Михаил Палагин From: Михаил Палагин Date: March 23rd, 2018 07:37 pm (UTC) (Link)

Wieviel Haubitzen hat Ihr Zug?

Понемногу перевожу с непонятного языка на понятный. Уже удалось адекватно (доходчиво, т.е.) перевести название статьи. Даже сам удивился!!!

“Putin's New Term—From Brezhnev to Stalin” --> "Новое погоняло Путина - где-то между Брежневым и Сталиным".

Edited at 2018-03-23 07:42 pm (UTC)
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