https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ecS8T95N_Og
Apr 20, 2022
Andrei Illarionov, the former chief economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, tells CNN's Jim Sciutto that he thinks imposing a "smart embargo" on Russia, where money accumulated by countries dependent on Russian gas and oil is given not to Putin, but to Ukraine, to help her to resist aggression and repair damage made by Russian troops.
Transcript:
Jim Sciutto: Even as multiple sources tell CNN tonight that the U.S. is preparing another $800 million in weapons for the Ukrainian military, the number that may matter more to Vladimir Putin is 38 billion. The EU has spent at least that much on Russian energy just since the war began. My next guest knows the impact the money will have on the mind of the Russian leader. Andrei Illarionov is Putin's former chief economic adviser. Andrei, good to have you on tonight.
AI: Good evening. Nice to be with you.
JS: You worked with Vladimir Putin at a time back in the 2000s when he seemed to be interested in moving closer to the West. What have you seen changed in him since then that has led to where we are right now?
AI: The most serious evolution, or maybe better to say – devolution, of his attitude has happened between 2003 and 2007 when he has changed his mind – from pretty pro-Western political leader, especially by the Russian standards, to a very open anti-Western leader. That happened in this period of time. We can discuss what exactly – what exact factors – contributed to this change of mind. I would say that some of these factors were: Iraq war, color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, and also his exposition to new ideas that he never heard before. Some – we need to underscore this – some Americans told him these wrong ideas, and he took them as a weapon and started to use them from year 2007.
JS: What ideas exactly?
AI: The ideas of anti-NATO, against membership of Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, the idea to bring NATO back to the 1997 division line in Europe, and idea of superpowers having spheres of privileged interests. In the beginning of 2000s Putin did not have such ideas. But he has acquired those ideas in the period between year 2005 to year 2007.
JS: Well, we're seeing those ideas in action now on the ground in Ukraine with ruthless effects. What would make a difference for him? What would actually stop him? He's been under sanction for years. Is there one sanction that would make a difference?
AI: In this particular situation I would propose something that I would call a ‘smart embargo’ on Russian energy export. What do we have right now? We have three serious problems at the same time. First of all, Putin does receive about 1 billion U.S. dollar per day as a result of export of Russian gas and oil. That is the money that is financing Putin's war machine. Second, this Putin's war machine is making a lot of damage. It made enormous damage to Ukraine, which is measured by hundreds of billion dollars on the Ukrainian territory. Ukraine does need a lot of money to restore and repair all these damages. And third, we need to give some time to Europe to adjust itself to a new situation when Europe would be able to avoid Russian import and consumption of Russian energy. What would be the golden instrument to solve this puzzle? The idea I’d like to propose is to introduce the so-called a ‘smart embargo’. What does it mean? It means introduction of the escrow accounts at which all proceeds for Russian oil and gas will be accumulated, but will not be given back to Putin. This money can be used until the end of the war, until withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine, for financing reparation, restoration, rehabilitation of Ukraine. And it gives time to Europe to adjust to a new situation without Russian energy. We can think that if some portion of this money, let's say 50%, will be going to Ukraine, it would be a substantial support for Ukrainian efforts to resist aggression and to normalize life in Ukrainian cities and villages.
JS: There's been a lot of speculation in the West as to whether Putin can survive this at home. Set aside the Russian public. But just inside the Kremlin. You worked for Putin. Is there any potential for someone challenging his leadership? The military, someone else? Is that realistic?
AI: I think we need to come to a very clear idea, that with all problems with Putin personally the most serious problem is with the Putin's political regime. And that is why we need to be absolutely serious that with such a political regime – with Putin or without Putin – Russia will remain a threat to international peace and security. So that is why we need to think not only about how to live with Russia without Putin, but to live with Russia without the Putin's political regime. No matter how long and how difficult it will be. This should be a goal for the international community. World cannot live in peace and security if we have such an aggressor who is attacking neighboring countries, and not only neighboring countries, killing hundreds of thousands people in Chechnya, in Georgia, in Ukraine, in Syria, in Africa, around the world.
JS: We witness it every day. Andrei Illarionov, thank you so much for giving your inside.
AI: Thank you.
https://video.snapstream.net/Play/3KWse8XyLJCyauWYAzVN2F?accessToken=bqduas4awxv00