Андрей Илларионов (aillarionov) wrote,
Андрей Илларионов

Что спасло Чили?

В последние дни появилось несколько сравнений чилийского и гаитянского землетрясений. Это неудивительно – трудно избежать искушения и не сравнить последствия двух крупнейших катаклизмов, произошедших с интервалом в полтора месяца с эпицентрами недалеко от столиц двух государств Латинской Америки.

В центре внимания сравнений – колоссальная разница в жертвах (приблизительно 230-250 тыс.чел. в Гаити и 723 чел. в Чили) при обратном соотношении (в 501 раз) в мощности землетрясений. Объяснения, какие даются этой разнице (при корректировке на мощность толчков, на расстояние населенных пунктов от эпицентров и т.п.), во многом зависят от политических и иных позиций их авторов.

1. Левацкая позиция объясняет разницу чистой случайностью, а также бедностью Гаити (не касаясь причин последней), и отказывает в праве на проведение самих сравнений:

Oxfam. Chile and Haiti: Earthquakes defy comparison
There is a tendency to compare disasters, and I am sure many of us started to do that Saturday morning when we heard about the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile. Another earthquake! Is it like the one in Haiti?
The answer is of course no, Chile is a completely different place. Although the earthquake was a significantly stronger (something like 500 times stronger!) than the 12 January Haiti quake, it hit a much less densely populated area with a government equipped with resources to respond...
It is hard to make valid comparisons between such tragedies.

За исключением этой точки зрения другие обнародованные позиции признают не только необходимость сравнения последствий, но и пытаются выделить значимые для них социальные, экономические, правовые, политические факторы. Практически все они согласны с ключевой ролью в предотвращении большого количества жертв строительного кодекса и правового порядка в Чили. В остальном их позиции различаются.

2. Авторы, близкие к Демократической партии США и занимающие позицию, какую условно можно назвать государственно-социал-демократической, объясняют относительно низкое число жертв в Чили наличием государственного регулирования, качеством руководства спасательными работами со стороны непосредственно президента страны, а также наличием демократической политической системы:

Chile was ready for quake, Haiti wasn't 

Chile is wealthier and infinitely better prepared, with strict building codes, robust emergency response and a long history of handling seismic catastrophes.
"The fact that the president (Michelle Bachelet) was out giving minute-to-minute reports a few hours after the quake in the middle of the night gives you an indication of their disaster response," said Sinclair. 
Most Haitians didn't know whether their president, Rene Preval, was alive or dead for at least a day after the quake.

Chile and Haiti: A look at earthquakes and politics
Chile had regulations in place before the quake that required contractors of all new buildings to use earthquake-resistant standards.
Though it is not especially fashionable at the moment to note these things, Chile, unlike Haiti, is also a working democracy.

Long Live Democratic Seismology
...people are beginning to notice that the likelihood of perishing in an earthquake, or of being utterly dispossessed by it, is as much a function of the society in which one lives as it is of proximity to a fault.
Down with the earthquake deniers! Long live democratic seismology!

см. также:


NPR Chile, Haiti Quakes Explained



3. Авторы, близкие к Республиканской партии США и занимающие позицию, какую условно можно назвать правой и либеральной (в европейско-международном смысле слова), объясняют разницу в числе жертв различиями в уровнях благосостояния, экономической свободы, правового порядка, реформами, проведенными «чикагскими мальчиками»:

How Milton Friedman Saved Chile 

Chile's "Chicago Boys" had drafted a set of policy proposals which amounted to an off-the-shelf recipe for economic liberalization: sharp reductions to government spending and the money supply; privatization of state-owned companies; the elimination of obstacles to free enterprise and foreign investment...
Pinochet appointed a succession of Chicago Boys to senior economic posts. By 1990, the year he ceded power, per capita GDP had risen by 40% (in 2005 dollars) even as Peru and Argentina stagnated. Pinochet's democratic successors—all of them nominally left-of-center—only deepened the liberalization drive. Result: Chileans have become South America's richest people. They have the continent's lowest level of corruption, the lowest infant-mortality rate, and the lowest number of people living below the poverty line.
Chile also has some of the world's strictest building codes. That makes sense for a country that straddles two massive tectonic plates. But having codes is one thing, enforcing them is another. The quality and consistency of enforcement is typically correlated to the wealth of nations. The poorer the country, the likelier people are to scrimp on rebar, or use poor quality concrete, or lie about compliance.

A Tale of Two Quakes 
Chile has benefited enormously in recent decades from the free-market reforms it passed in the 1970s under dictator Augusto Pinochet. While Chileans still disagree about Pinochet's political actions, they have not repealed most of that era's economic opening to the world. In the 2010 Index of Economic Freedom, compiled by the Heritage Foundation and this newspaper, Chile is the world's 10th freest economy. Haiti ranks 141st.
Those reforms have allowed Chile to prosper, while many other Latin nations like once-wealthy Argentina have stagnated under the burden of Peronism. Wealthy nations have the resources to invest in safer buildings, modern health care, telecommunications and search-and-rescue capability. 
The rich can usually find a way to protect themselves, but it is the middle class and poor who suffer most when growth flags and nations stagnate. Sometimes it takes a tragedy like an earthquake to relearn that lesson, as we've been able to see in Chile and Haiti.

Chile and Haiti: A Tale of Two Earthquakes
Chile can do things right, Haiti defenders argue, because it's more developed.
Wrong. It's the other way around: Chile is more developed because it's doing things right. The same goes for Brazil, Uruguay, Costa Rica and a handful of other Latin American and Caribbean nations that have decided in the 21st century to stop running their societies like medieval fiefdoms. They've conceded that niceties like rule of law, accountability, education, entrepreneurial opportunity and administrative efficiency actually have merit. And they've stopped making worn-out excuses, like the threats of communism or U.S. imperialism, for not modernizing their political and economic systems.

Что на самом деле спасло Чили?

Чистая удача?
Ответственный президент?
Благосостояние, порожденное свободой и правом?
Все вместе?

Что-то другое?

Tags: Чили, катастрофы, право, природа, свобода

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