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Прогнозы 2008 г. от Гайдара и Илларионова - Андрей Илларионов — LiveJournal
aillarionov
aillarionov
Прогнозы 2008 г. от Гайдара и Илларионова
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From: kabud Date: November 15th, 2012 05:18 pm (UTC) (Link)

Финансовый кризис был спровоцирован



without question, there were actors who had the motive to harm the U.S. economy. These motives can be categorized as both economic and non-economic. In addition, these same actors have clearly demonstrated the means to carry out such an attack. Finally, the opportunity was clearly present given the existing economic condition and regulatory framework in operation.

a three-phased attack is underway with two of those phases completed to date.

The first phase was a speculative run-up in oil prices that generated as much as $2 trillion of excess wealth for oil-producing nations, filling the coffers of Sovereign Wealth Funds

This phase appears to have begun in 2007 and lasted through June 2008.

The rapid run-up in oil prices made the value of OPEC oil in the ground roughly $137 trillion (based on $125/barrel oil) virtually equal to the value of all other world financial assets, including every share of stock, every bond, every private company, all government and corporate debt, and the entire world‘s bank deposits. That means that the proven OPEC reserves were valued at almost three times the total market capitalization of every company on the planet traded in all 27 global stock markets.

The second phase appears to have begun in 2008 with a series of bear raids
targeting U.S. financial services firms that appeared to be systemically
significant. An initial bear raid against Bear Stearns was successful in forcing the firm to near bankruptcy. It was acquired by JP Morgan Chase and the systemic risk was averted briefly. Similar bear raids were conducted against various other firms during the summer, each ending in an acquisition. The attacks continued until the outright failure of Lehman Brothers in mid-September. This created a system-wide crisis, caused the collapse of the credit markets, and nearly collapsed the global financial system.

The bear raids were perpetrated by naked short selling and manipulation of credit default swaps, both of which were virtually unregulated. The short selling was actually enhanced by recent regulatory changes including rescission of the uptick rule and loopholes such as ―the Madoff exemption.

While substantial, unusual trading activity can be identified, the source of the bear raids has not been traceable to date due to serious transparency gaps for hedge funds, trading pools, sponsored access, and sovereign wealth funds. What can be demonstrated, however, is that two relatively small broker dealers emerged virtually overnight to trade ―trillions of dollars worth of U.S. blue chip companies. They are the number one traders in all financial companies that collapsed or are now financially supported by the U.S. government. Trading by the firms has grown exponentially while the markets have lost trillions of dollars
in value.

The risk of a Phase Three has quickly emerged, suggesting a potential direct economic attack on the U.S. Treasury and U.S. dollar. Such an event has already been discussed by finance ministers in major emerging market nations such as China and Russia as well as Iran and the Arab states. A focused effort to collapse the dollar by dumping Treasury bonds has grave implications including the possibility of a downgrading of U.S. debt forcing rapidly rising interest rates and a collapse of the American economy. In short, a bear raid against the U.S. financial system remains possible and may even be likely.

Phase Two may have concluded with the brief market rebound that was supported by an emerging regulatory response calling for greater transparency across the board. Efforts including regulation of credit default swaps and proposed oversight of previously unmonitored trading activity, as well as Federal support of systemically vital institutions.

But, we remain left with the critical unanswered questions of

who and how?

http://bit.ly/U1TtCp
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