Андрей Илларионов (aillarionov) wrote,
Андрей Илларионов

Том Коттон и Барак Обама

Сенатор Коттон, 1 октября 2015 г.:


Президент Обама, 2 октября 2015 г.:


Q  Thank you, Mr. President.  There have been several developments in Syria that I wanted to ask you about, starting with Russia’s involvement.  You met with President Putin earlier this week, and I wonder if you think he was honest with you about his intentions in Syria.  If Russia is targeting groups beyond the Islamic State, including U.S.-aligned groups, does the U.S. military have an obligation to protect them?...  Would you, in particular, be willing to reconsider a no-fly zone, which several presidential candidates, including your former Secretary of State, are now calling for?
THE PRESIDENT: ...what Russia is doing now is not particularly different from what they had been doing in the past -- they’re just more overt about it.  They’ve been propping up a regime that is rejected by an overwhelming majority of the Syrian population because they’ve seen that he has been willing to drop barrel bombs on children and on villages indiscriminately, and has been more concerned about clinging to power than the state of his country.
So in my discussions with President Putin, I was very clear that the only way to solve the problem in Syria is to have a political transition that is inclusive -- that keeps the state intact, that keeps the military intact, that maintains cohesion, but that is inclusive -- and the only way to accomplish that is for Mr. Assad to transition, because you cannot rehabilitate him in the eyes of Syrians.  This is not a judgment I’m making; it is a judgment that the overwhelming majority of Syrians make.
And I said to Mr. Putin that I’d be prepared to work with him if he is willing to broker with his partners, Mr. Assad and Iran, a political transition -- we can bring the rest of the world community to a brokered solution -- but that a military solution alone, an attempt by Russia and Iran to prop up Assad and try to pacify the population is just going to get them stuck in a quagmire.  And it won’t work.  And they will be there for a while if they don’t take a different course.
I also said to him that it is true that the United States and Russia and the entire world have a common interest in destroying ISIL.  But what was very clear -- and regardless of what Mr. Putin said -- was that he doesn’t distinguish between ISIL and a moderate Sunni opposition that wants to see Mr. Assad go.  From their perspective, they’re all terrorists.  And that’s a recipe for disaster, and it’s one that I reject.
So where we are now is that we are having technical conversations about de-confliction so that we’re not seeing U.S. and American firefights in the air.  But beyond that, we’re very clear in sticking to our belief and our policy that the problem here is Assad and the brutality that he has inflicted on the Syrian people, and that it has to stop.  And in order for it to stop, we’re prepared to work with all the parties concerned.  But we are not going to cooperate with a Russian campaign to simply try to destroy anybody who is disgusted and fed up with Mr. Assad’s behavior.
Keep in mind also, from a practical perspective, the moderate opposition in Syria is one that if we’re ever going to have to have a political transition, we need.  And the Russian policy is driving those folks underground or creating a situation in which they are de-capacitated, and it’s only strengthening ISIL.  And that’s not good for anybody.
In terms of our support of opposition groups inside of Syria, I made very clear early on that the United States couldn’t impose a military solution on Syria either, but that it was in our interest to make sure that we were engaged with moderate opposition inside of Syria because eventually Syria will fall, the Assad regime will fall, and we have to have somebody who we’re working with that we can help pick up the pieces and stitch back together a cohesive, coherent country.  And so we will continue to support them.
The training-and-equip program was a specific initiative by the Defense Department to see if we could get some of that moderate opposition to focus attention on ISIL in the eastern portion of the country.  And I’m the first one to acknowledge it has not worked the way it was supposed to, Julie.  And I think that the Department of Defense would say the same thing.  And part of the reason, frankly, is because when we tried to get them to just focus on ISIL, the response we’d get back is, how can we focus on ISIL when every single day we’re having barrel bombs and attacks from the regime?  And so it’s been hard to get them to reprioritize, looking east, when they’ve got bombs coming at them from the west...
Iran and Assad make up Mr. Putin’s coalition at the moment. The rest of the world makes up ours.  So I don't think people are fooled by the current strategy.  It does not mean that we could not see Mr. Putin begin to recognize that it is in their interest to broker a political settlement.  And as I said in New York, we're prepared to work with the Russians and the Iranians, as well as our partners who are part of the anti-ISIL coalition to come up with that political transition.  And nobody pretends that it’s going to be easy, but I think it is still possible.  And so we will maintain lines of communication.
But we are not going to be able to get those negotiations going if there is not a recognition that there’s got to be a change in government.  We're not going to go back to the status quo ante.  And the kinds of airstrikes against moderate opposition that Russia is engaging in is going to be counterproductive.  It’s going to move us farther away rather than towards the ultimate solution that we're all -- that we all should be looking for.

Q    (Inaudible.)
THE PRESIDENT: ...We reject Russia’s theory that everybody opposed to Assad is a terrorist.  We think that is self-defeating.  It will get them into a quagmire.  It will be used as a further recruitment tool for foreign fighters...

Q   Thank you, Mr. President.  You just said that you reject President Putin’s approach to Syria and his attacks on moderate opposition forces.  You said it was a recipe for disaster.  But what are you willing to do to stop President Putin and protect moderate opposition fighters?  Would you consider imposing sanctions against Russia?  Would you go so far as to equip moderate rebels with anti-aircraft weapons to protect them from Russian air attacks?  And how do you respond to critics who say Putin is outsmarting you, that he took a measure of you in Ukraine and he felt he could get away with it?
THE PRESIDENT:  Yes, I’ve heard it all before.  (Laughter.) I’ve got to say I’m always struck by the degree to which not just critics but I think people buy this narrative...
So I want Russia to be successful.  This is not a contest between the United States and Russia.  It is in our interest for Russia to be a responsible, effective actor on the international stage that can share burdens with us, along with China, along with Europe, along with Japan, along with other countries -- because the problems we have are big.  So I’m hopeful that Mr. Putin, having made this doubling-down of the support he has provided to Mr. Assad, recognizes that this is not going to be a good long-term strategy and that he works instead to bring about a political settlement.
Just as I hope that they can resolve the issues with Ukraine in a way that recognizes Russian equities but upholds the basic principle of sovereignty and independence that the Ukrainian people should enjoy like everybody else.  But until that time, we’re going to continue to have tensions and we’re going to continue to have differences...
But we’re not going to make Syria into a proxy war between the United States and Russia.  That would be bad strategy on our part.  This is a battle between Russia, Iran, and Assad against the overwhelming majority of the Syrian people.  Our battle is with ISIL, and our battle is with the entire international community to resolve the conflict in a way that can end the bloodshed and end the refugee crisis, and allow people to be at home, work, grow food, shelter their children, send those kids to school.  That’s the side we’re on.
This is not some superpower chessboard contest.  And anybody who frames it in that way isn’t paying very close attention to what’s been happening on the chessboard.

Краткий перевод на русский:
В.: Русские бомбят сирийскую умеренную оппозицию, людей, которых мы обучаем, тренируем и поддерживаем. Не должны ли вооруженные силы США их защитить?
Обама: То, что Россия делает сейчас, практически не отличается от того, что Россия делала всегда...
Я сказал президенту Путину, что готов работать с ним, если он поработает со своими союзниками – Асадом и Ираном – относительно осуществления политического переходного периода...
Я сказал в Нью-Йорке, что мы готовы работать с русскими и иранцами и с другими партнерами по анти-ИГИЛовской коалиции по осуществлению политического переходного периода.

В.: Г-н президент, вы сказали, что отвергаете подход Путина к ситуации в Сирии, вы сказали, что это рецепт катастрофы. Но что вы готовы сделать для того, чтобы остановить Путина и защитить бойцов умеренной оппозиции? Вы готовы ввести новые санкции против России? Вы готовы предоставить оппозиции средства ПВО, чтобы защитить их от русских воздушных атак? И как вы отвечаете вашим критикам, которые говорят, что Путин перехитрил вас, что он вычислил вас в Украине, и теперь он понимает, что может остаться безнаказанным?
Обама: Да, я уже слышал это раньше (Смех). Я поражен тем, как не только критики, но и обычные люди могут поверить такому описанию...
Я хочу, чтобы Россия была успешной... Я надеюсь, что г-н Путин после того, как он так поддерживал Асада, поймет, что это не очень хорошая долгосрочная стратегия и что вместо нее он начнет работу по обеспечению переходного периода...
Также я надеюсь, что он сможет разрешить спорные вопросы с Украиной таким образом, чтобы были признаны российские активы (интересы) [в Украине], и чтобы были поддержаны принципы суверенитета и независимости, которыми украинцы должны наслаждаться так же, как и все другие народы...
Мы не будем превращать Сирию в поле для прокси-войны между США и Россией. С нашей стороны, это была бы плохая стратегия. На самом деле у нас две разные войны. Их война – это война России, Ирана, Асада против абсолютного большинства сирийского народа. Наша война – это война международной коалиции против ИГИЛа.

И не говорите, что Обама чего-то не понимает.
Как показывают его предельно откровенные ответы, все он понимает.
Дословно Обама говорит следующее:

Бойцов умеренной оппозиции, своих людей в Сирии мы не предупреждали о начале русскими военных действий.
От русских бомбежек мы их не защищаем и защищать не будем.
Сейчас мы ведем с русскими переговоры по деконфликтизации боевых действийчтобы не случилось воздушных боев между нашими и русскими ВВС (похоже, это заявление, предваряющее введение запрета полетов американских самолетов в воздушном пространстве Сирии).
Путин может выкручивать руки Украине таким образом, чтобы добиться (юридического) признания русских интересов в Украине.
Противодействовать Путину в Сирии я не буду, а буду ждать, когда он изменит свое мнение на противоположное – вместо поддержки Асада будет заниматься поготовкой переходного периода.
А пока у нас сейчас идут две разные войны.
У них – русских – своя война. Они вместе с Асадом и Ираном воюют против большинства сирийцев. Мы с ними не согласны. Но мы не будем им мешать.
А у нас – своя война. Идущая последние полтора года. Крайне неэффективная. С колоссальными затратами и нулевыми результатами. Но мы будем продолжать ее вести
Да, а с Путиным, президентом Путиным, я всегда готов сотрудничать.
Tags: 4МВ, Мюнхен-2015, Обама, Путин, Путинская война против Украины, Сирия, кадры

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